Of 1,554 independent restaurants modeled as national-broadline customers, about 110 are realistic conversions for a local distributor, worth roughly $350K in annual contribution. Most sit in Pittsburgh's core, the Allegheny suburbs and Uniontown.
Mean of 300 simulated assignments; whiskers show the 5th to 95th percentile.
Price room means the local landed cost beats national by at least the assumed 3% product-cost handicap. 643 more accounts sit at 1 to 3% room and are near misses.
Expected conversions. Dashed line is the base case (110).
Modeled share of independent restaurants by supplier. Targets are expected accounts that pass price room, route fit and profitability.
Greene, Lawrence, Mercer and Indiana counties are context only. Butler and Armstrong show almost no targets because few local-held accounts sit nearby, so route fit fails.
Target accounts by zone, with expected annual contribution.
Local-held accounts (468) whose landed cost exceeds national's, by local product-cost handicap.
These accounts are held on service and relationships. About 12 are unprofitable even at average cost: reprice or set minimums.
Independent restaurants by which distribution center is closer on a stem-distance basis. Allegheny is plotted per facility; the other six counties by ZIP centroid (bubble size is the count).
Stem distance is great-circle distance x 1.30 from rounded DC anchors, not a routed distance. Contested means within 5 road miles of equal distance. Hover a percentage for the count. Across circuity 1.25 to 1.40, local-edge share stays 78 to 83% and national-edge 11 to 16%.
Greene, Lawrence, Mercer and Indiana counties are shaded as context only. County outlines are simplified.
Ranked by expected annual contribution. 295 ZIPs; top 10 hold 31% and top 20 hold 46%.